Bron : Wikibon
Sizing The Industrial Internet
Wikibon has projected the most likely progress of the development of the Industrial Internet using five metrics:
- The size of the current Industrial Internet Segment;
- The size and growth rate of Industrial Internet Technology Spend;
- The size and growth rate of Industrial Internet Technology Value;
- Return on investment (ROI);
- The cumulative net value created between 2012 & 2020 within the Industrial Internet segment, a metric derived from the other four.
The following assumptions were made in estimating the size of the Industrial Internet opportunity:
- The world-wide GDP is $83 Trillion (on a 2012 base).
- The Industry Internet Segment is 16% of the world-wide GDP (this is a conservative estimate based on using the manufacturing industry as an initial target, with some areas participating, and a compensating influx from other areas such as health-care and transportation).
- The annual growth of the world-wide GDP is assumed to be 1%.
- The current Industrial Technology spend (this does not include current spend on the Industrial Internet) is assumed to be 3% of the Industrial Internet segment. Currently IT spend is slightly less than 2%, but there is additional spend on sensors in point of production/generation and related technologies that gets this figure up to 3%.
- The annual growth of industrial technology spend is 2.5%. This is mainly driven by increased IT spend.
- The current (2012 base) of Industrial Internet technology spend is 0.15% of the Industrial Internet Segment.
- The growth rate of the Industrial Internet Technology is 45% from 2013 to 2020, which is in line with the growth of other areas of the Internet after initial seeding. The growth in 2020 will be high, and is expected to taper off significantly after 2020.
- The current value created by Industrial Internet technology spending is assumed to be 0.17% of the Industrial Internet segment. This is again a conservative assumption based on early investments having a poor return.
- Wikibon's in-depth interviews indicate that the growth in Industrial Internet Technology value created will be in the range of 60%, a 15% uplift on the 45% growth in spend.
The size of the Industrial Internet Segment is shown in Table 1 in the footnotes to grow from $13.3 trillion to $17.5 trillion in 2020, against a global GDP of $83 trillion in 2012. The sizing research findings are shown in Figure 2. The spend on the Industrial Internet is projected to grow from $20 billion in 2012 to about $514 billion in 2020. The value created is expected to grow from $23 billion in 2012 to about $1.3 trillion in 2020. The cumulative net value created is projected to be $1.7 trillion by 2020. The ROI grows up to 149% by 2020.
Figure 2 also shows the current small spend on the Industrial Internet and the normal relatively small growth at the beginning of Industrial Internet adoption. This very rapid adoption is very common in technology adoption curves, and a slow-down in growth of the Industrial Internet would be expected after 2020.